Saturday, February 20, 2016

2016 Democratic Delegate Count

None of the sites that are collating election delegate data were to my liking, so I creating my own Google Spreadsheet with the information I want in the format I prefer. I wanted election delegates and superdelegates counted separately, those delegate allocations by state and territories, and the dates of all the primaries and caucuses. The link at the bottom is a shared read-only view of that document. 
For exampleBloomberg has the apportioned delegates by state as well as the total, but doesn't give a running tally of election delegates vs superdelegates. They're all mushed together. (Also, their Georgia count is off by one superdelegate, either that or Green Papers is off by one).
Another exampleGreen Papers has the delegate and how they are calculated and allocated, but it's very hard to read and doesn't include apportioning status post election. Drilling down by state is nice, but it’s not an easy on the eye.
My spreadsheet breaks out  also has columns for delegates that have yet to be apportioned. So the state of the race pre-Super Tuesday is more clear: The Democratic primary is tight.  As delegates are apportioned, I'll update the document to keep up with the state of race.
Another problem I have with these online sites is that they take Clinton's superdelegates as fixed, but this is simply not so: the superdelegates can change their mind, and likely will. So Sanders and Clinton's totals are not reflective of the electionright now , but of endorsements. As I write this, Clinton only has a 52-51 edge over Sanders in election delegates. That to me is a close race, and it’s only visible once superdelegates are treated separately.
Endorsements are important, for sure, but the battle is fought first with election delegates. With only two candidates in the race, it is very improbable that one of them doesn't get the 2,382 (or 2383, again with that Georgia!) to clench the nomination with just election delegates. However, if it really is that close, having the superdelegates to push over the finish line won’t hurt, but let’s cross that bridge when we come to it.
I submit for your perusal: The 2016 Democratic Delegate Count
Post Script: I am open to suggestions for how to improve it, or even how to better present the data. Two suggestions I've already incorporated are changing "Won" delegates to either "Pledged" or "Pending". I've also put the delegate count at the top with the frozen rows so as you scroll, you can mentally add numbers to the total.

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